The challenge and your odds
Everything is worked out in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.
How to use the challenge ROI calculator
- Pick your firm to fill in its split and fee refund, or type them.
- Enter the fee and the account size.
- Enter honest odds: your chance to pass and the chance to reach a payout once funded.
- Enter the monthly profit you expect when funded and for how many months, then read the expected value and the break-even pass chance.
How the expected value is worked out
- Payouts if funded = account size × monthly profit × split × months.
- Chance to get paid = chance to pass × chance to reach a payout once funded.
- Expected value = chance to get paid × (payouts + fee refund) − fee. Above 0, buying this challenge pays on average at your odds; below 0 it costs you money on average.
- Break-even pass chance = fee ÷ ((payouts + refund) × payout chance).
- Fees per pass = fee ÷ pass chance: at a 20% pass rate you buy five challenges, on average, for each pass.
Worked example
A $500 challenge for a $100,000 account. You pass 20% of the time, half of funded accounts reach a payout, and a funded month makes 4% at an 80% split for three months, with the fee refunded.
- Payouts if funded: 100,000 × 4% × 80% × 3 = $9,600, plus the $500 refund = $10,100.
- Chance to get paid: 20% × 50% = 10%. Expected value: 0.10 × 10,100 − 500 = +$510 per challenge bought.
- Break-even pass chance: 500 ÷ (10,100 × 0.5) = 9.9%. Below that, the challenge loses money on average.
- On average five challenges ($2,500) are bought for each pass, so plan the budget for several attempts, not one.
Your pass chance is the hardest number to know. Estimate it with the challenge pass calculator from your real win rate and reward : risk, and be honest about it: most traders don't pass.
The prop firm calculator suite
- Challenge pass calculator: your chance to pass and the days it takes.
- Consistency rule calculator: the biggest day you may have.
- Daily drawdown calculator: today's floor under your firm's method.
- Challenge ROI calculator: is the fee worth it at your pass rate?
- Payout calculator, drawdown calculator (daily and maximum, static or trailing) and the challenge tracker with four firms' rules compared.
FundedNext Partner link Stellar 2-Step. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
FXIFY Partner link 2-Phase Standard. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
FXIFYQPZ8R2 Use it at checkout via our link.The5%ers Partner link High Stakes. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

The ICC Zillas prop firm tracker keeps every challenge fee, reset and payout, so you see your real return after costs. 30-day free trial, no card needed.
Start free →Calculator © ICC Terminal, part of ICC Zillas. Our own code and text.
Questions
Is a prop firm challenge worth it?
Only if chance to get paid × (payouts + refund) is bigger than the fee. At a 20% pass rate, a 50% payout chance and $10,100 if paid, a $500 challenge is worth about +$510 on average.
What pass rate do I need for a prop firm challenge to pay off?
Fee ÷ ((payouts + refund) × payout chance). For the example above, about 10%.
How many challenges will I buy before I pass?
On average 1 ÷ pass chance: five at 20%, ten at 10%. Count the fees for all of them.
Does the fee refund change the maths?
Yes. A refund adds the fee to the first payout, so it only helps if you reach a payout.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and does not send or store what you type.
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