Trading Expectancy Calculator & Formula

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Win rate (%) Average win ($) Average loss ($) Risk per trade, 1R ($, optional)

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How to use the expectancy calculator

Enter your win rate in % (winning trades divided by all trades with a result).
Enter your average win and your average loss in money, both as positive numbers.
Optionally enter your usual risk per trade (1R) to see the expectancy in R; it uses the average loss if empty.
Read the expectancy per trade and per 100 trades, in money and in R, and the break-even win rate.

The trading expectancy formula

Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)

It is the average amount one trade makes or loses over many trades. Divide it by your risk per trade (1R) to get the expectancy in R, which lets you compare methods and accounts of any size. Multiply by 100 to see what 100 trades should bring if the numbers hold.

Worked example

A trader wins 40% of trades, the average win is $250 and the average loss is $100, risking $100 per trade.

Expectancy = 0.40 × $250 − 0.60 × $100 = $100 − $60 = +$40 per trade.
In R: $40 ÷ $100 = +0.4R per trade, so 100 trades should bring about +40R ($4,000).
The break-even win rate at a 1 : 2.5 reward to risk is 100 ÷ (1 + 2.5) = 28.6%, so 40% is well above it.

Now the same trader with a 25% win rate: 0.25 × $250 − 0.75 × $100 = −$12.50. A small change in win rate turns a winning method into a losing one, which is why expectancy should come from many real trades, not from a feeling.

What is a good trading expectancy?

Below 0: the method loses money on average, whatever the win rate.
0 to 0.1R: a thin edge; spreads, commissions and slippage can eat it.
0.1R to 0.5R: a real edge for most day and swing traders.
Above 0.5R: very good, but check that it comes from enough trades (at least 50 to 100) and not from one big win.

Expectancy says nothing about how bumpy the road is. Check the risk of ruin for your risk per trade, the profit factor, and how much a drawdown takes to recover. For one trade's R multiple or a list of results, use the R-multiple calculator, and read R multiple and expectancy explained.

See your real expectancy, per setup

ICC Zillas works out expectancy in money and R for every setup, symbol and session from your MetaTrader sync or imported trades. 30-day free trial, no card needed.

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The calculator uses the numbers you type. Past results do not guarantee future results. It is not financial advice. Trading with leverage carries a high risk of loss.

Questions

How do you calculate trading expectancy?

Multiply your win rate by your average win, multiply your loss rate by your average loss, and subtract the second from the first. A 40% win rate, a $250 average win and a $100 average loss give 0.4 × 250 − 0.6 × 100 = +$40 per trade.

What is expectancy in R?

The expectancy divided by the amount you risk per trade (1R). +0.4R means each trade makes 40% of the risk on average, whatever the account size.

Can a method with a low win rate have a positive expectancy?

Yes. With wins three times the size of losses, a 30% win rate gives 0.3 × 3 − 0.7 × 1 = +0.2R per trade.

How many trades do I need for a reliable expectancy?

At least 50, better 100 or more of the same setup. With fewer trades one big win or loss changes the number a lot.

Is my data sent anywhere?

No. The calculator runs in your browser and does not send or store what you type.

Trading expectancy calculator