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Break-even win rate for each reward : risk
With an average win of R times the average loss, you break even when win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + R). Above that line the method makes money on average; below it, it loses, however good it feels.
| Reward : risk | Break-even win rate | Expectancy at a 50% win rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1 : 0.5 | 66.7% | −0.25R |
| 1 : 1 | 50.0% | 0.00R |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40.0% | +0.25R |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% | +0.50R |
| 1 : 2.5 | 28.6% | +0.75R |
| 1 : 3 | 25.0% | +1.00R |
| 1 : 4 | 20.0% | +1.50R |
| 1 : 5 | 16.7% | +2.00R |
How the calculator counts
- Win rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses). Break-even trades are left out, as in most journals.
- Reward : risk = average win ÷ average loss.
- Expectancy = (wins × average win − losses × average loss) ÷ all trades, the average result per trade. In R mode: win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss.
- Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss. Above 1 makes money; 1.5 and more is solid.
For one trade's R multiple, or statistics from a list of R values, use the R-multiple and expectancy calculator.
ICC Zillas works out win rate, profit factor, expectancy and R for every setup, symbol and hour from your MetaTrader sync or imported trades. 21-day free trial, no card needed.
Start free →Questions
How do I calculate my break-even win rate?
Divide 1 by (1 + R), where R is your average win divided by your average loss. With a 1 : 2 reward to risk you break even at 33.3%; with 1 : 1 at 50%.
Is a 40% win rate good?
It depends on the size of the wins. At 1 : 2 reward to risk a 40% win rate makes money (break-even is 33.3%); at 1 : 1 it loses (break-even is 50%).
What is the difference between win rate and profit factor?
Win rate counts how often you win. Profit factor compares how much you win with how much you lose: gross profit divided by gross loss. A method can have a low win rate and a high profit factor.
Do break-even trades count?
They are left out of the win rate, as in most journals, but they are counted in the expectancy per trade.
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