Prop Firm Challenge Pass Calculator

Your challenge and your trading

Firm preset (optional) Phase 1 profit target (%) Phase 2 target (%, empty for 1 step) Maximum loss (%) Daily loss limit (%) Minimum trading days Your win rate (%) Reward : risk (avg win ÷ avg loss) Risk per trade (% of the account) Trades per day

Enter your numbers.

Everything is worked out in your browser. Nothing you type is sent anywhere.

How to use the challenge pass calculator

Pick your firm to fill in its targets and limits, or type your own rules.
Enter your real win rate and reward : risk from your journal.
Enter your risk per trade and how many trades you take a day.
Read the chance to pass each phase and both, the trades and days it takes, and the losing streaks that end it.

How the pass chance is worked out

The calculator plays the challenge 4,000 times with your numbers. Each trade wins (+reward : risk × risk) with your win rate and otherwise loses the risk. A run passes when it reaches the target after the minimum days, and fails when the balance touches the maximum loss or one day loses the daily limit. The share of passing runs is your pass chance; for two phases the two chances are multiplied. The random numbers are seeded, so the same inputs always give the same answer.

The model sizes every trade as a % of the initial balance, as most challenge traders do, and uses a static maximum loss; with a trailing limit the real chance is a little lower. It also assumes every trade is independent, which real trading is not.

Worked example

A trader wins 45% of trades at 1 : 2 (expectancy +0.35R) and risks 1% per trade, two trades a day, on a 2-step challenge with 10% then 5%, a 5% daily loss and a 10% maximum loss.

On average the 10% target takes 10 ÷ (0.35 × 1) ≈ 29 trades, about two to three weeks at two trades a day.
Ten losses in a row end the challenge; five in one day hit the daily limit.
The calculator gives a pass chance of about 94% for both phases. The same trader at 40% and 1 : 1 has no edge and passes only about 2% of the time: luck alone rarely passes.
Raise the risk to 2% and the target comes twice as fast, but the chance falls, because five losses now end it.

The inputs should be your real numbers from at least 50-100 trades of the setups you will use. A trading expectancy calculator and the risk of ruin calculator (with the maximum loss as the ruin level) help you check them.

The prop firm calculator suite

Challenge pass calculator: your chance to pass and the days it takes.
Consistency rule calculator: the biggest day you may have.
Daily drawdown calculator: today's floor under your firm's method.
Challenge ROI calculator: is the fee worth it at your pass rate?
Payout calculator, drawdown calculator (daily and maximum, static or trailing) and the challenge tracker with four firms' rules compared.

FundedNext Partner link Stellar 2-Step. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

FXIFY Partner link 2-Phase Standard. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

FXIFY promo code: FXIFYQPZ8R2 Use it at checkout via our link.

The5%ers Partner link High Stakes. We may earn a commission if you buy through it. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass. Trade only what you can afford to lose.

Track the challenge trade by trade

ICC Zillas checks every trade against your firm's rules and shows the room left on the daily loss, the maximum loss and the target. 30-day free trial, no card needed.

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Presets are taken from each firm's own pages on 27 October 2026 and can change at any time: read your firm's current rules. The pass chance is a simulation from the numbers you type, not a prediction. Not financial advice. Prop firm challenges are paid evaluations; most traders don't pass.

Calculator © ICC Terminal, part of ICC Zillas. Our own code and text.

Questions

What are my chances of passing a prop firm challenge?

It depends on your edge and your risk per trade. With a positive expectancy and 0.5-1% risk most simulated runs pass; with no edge only a few percent pass, however long you trade.

How many days does it take to pass a prop firm challenge?

Target ÷ (expectancy per trade × risk per trade) gives the trades; divide by trades per day. A 10% target at +0.35R and 1% risk takes about 29 trades.

What risk per trade is best for a challenge?

Most traders use 0.5% to 1%. More risk reaches the target sooner but makes a losing streak to the maximum or daily limit far more likely.

Why is the pass chance only an estimate?

Real trades are not independent, sizes vary and some firms trail the maximum loss. Use the number to compare plans, not as a promise.

Is my data sent anywhere?

No. The calculator runs in your browser and does not send or store what you type.

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Prop firm challenge pass calculator